I think the last thing Obama wants is to be declared a front runner, but numbers don’t lie. The delegates count, the popular vote counts, and his inroads into new territory now make him very hard to beat. I am not about to declare the winner of the contest, but I am trying to back up what I am saying with some evidence.

I think we see two things happening here. One is the genuine excitement, the first time voters, and the larger turnout that his candidacy is bringing to the Democratic Party – and that’s all of his making. The second thing we see is the distribution of the remaining states where Barack is the likely winner. It’s something like the Kerry-effect in 2004. Once a candidate is both exciting and winning people tend to also be for that candidate - and that is what I think we are seeing in the remaining states which were supposed to be more difficult for Barack.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, February 20th, 2008 at 2:52 pm and is filed under Politics, Campaign, Presidential Campaign .

I think the last thing Obama wants is to be declared a front runner, but numbers don’t lie. The delegates count, the popular vote counts, and his inroads into new territory now make him very hard to beat. I am not about to declare the winner of the contest, but I am trying to back up what I am saying with some evidence.

I think we see two things happening here. One is the genuine excitement, the first time voters, and the larger turnout that his candidacy is bringing to the Democratic Party – and that’s all of his making. The second thing we see is the distribution of the remaining states where Barack is the likely winner. It’s something like the Kerry-effect in 2004. Once a candidate is both exciting and winning people tend to also be for that candidate - and that is what I think we are seeing in the remaining states which were supposed to be more difficult for Barack.

This entry was posted on Wednesday, February 20th, 2008 at 2:48 pm and is filed under Politics, Campaign, Presidential Campaign .